The year 2025 was marked by economic and geopolitical shocks that proved structurally destabilising. The market will emerge profoundly transformed. Joshua Freedman, Senior Analyst at Rapaport, speaks with Leah Meirovich, Editor-in-Chief of Rapaport, and looks back at the various factors of instability that shook the sector to its foundations.
The year 2025 was marked by deep chaos in the diamond industry. While indicators were beginning to emerge from their slump (improving buyer sentiment, strong sales of large diamonds, early signs of improvement in the Chinese market, positive signals of recovery at the Hong Kong International Jewellery Show in March), the market abruptly shifted once again towards negative indicators following the announcement of new US tariff measures (the “Liberation Day”). India, which cuts 90% of the world’s diamonds and was already affected by weak demand, was particularly hard hit by this new blow. Import duties rose from 10% to 25%, and then to 50% from the summer onwards, leading to catastrophic social and economic consequences in India. Negotiations are ongoing between India and the United States and, in the meantime, it appears that circumvention solutions are being put in place via Mexico and the European Union. An inevitable corollary has been the shipment of significant diamond inventories to the United States ahead of the implementation of the new tariffs, further destabilising the US market.
Retail trade-offs
In retail, the year was marked by strong polarisation: natural diamonds versus laboratory-grown diamonds, round cuts versus fancy cuts, small stones versus larger stones. Laboratory-grown diamonds continue to gain ground, particularly in the United States. Demand has shifted towards smaller, less expensive stones, used in a more fashion-oriented jewellery segment, as seen at Walmart, Costco and Macy’s. Conversely, for stones above 1.2 carats, and within a budget range of around USD 10,000, the trend shows a slight return to natural diamonds, perceived as more relevant for emotional purchases and as offering greater long-term value.
However, another market-disrupting factor has had a positive impact on laboratory-grown diamonds. The rise in gold prices, which significantly weighs on manufacturers’ and jewellers’ margins, has pushed them to favour laboratory-grown diamonds in order to limit losses. The laboratory-grown diamond market has therefore indirectly benefited from the increase in the price of the precious metal. Less positively, laboratory-grown diamonds have lost the confidence of the GIA, which decided to stop certifying this category of stones in the same way as natural diamonds, abandoning the use of the 4Cs. This framework was deemed no longer relevant due to the lack of rarity and the standardised nature of their manufacturing. The year was also marked by the closure of Lightbox, De Beers’ laboratory-grown diamond subsidiary, whose initial price was set at USD 800 per carat.
The polarisation between round cuts and fancy cuts has translated into renewed interest in alternative diamond cuts (fancy shapes, antique cuts, vintage stones) or horizontal “East West” settings, partly initiated by celebrities. Taylor Swift’s engagement ring, an elongated antique-cut cushion diamond weighing between 8 and 10 carats, attracted the attention of millions of internet users. The previously predominant preference for round diamonds appears to be shifting towards more original and diversified requests, a trend that La Lettre had already highlighted. One of the reasons is that elongated shapes give the impression of being larger than round cuts at equal carat weight.
Rethinking marketing?
The Luanda Agreement marked an important turning point in 2025, changing perceptions of the funding and support that the Natural Diamond Council should receive, no longer financed solely by mining groups but also by diamond-producing countries — Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Angola, which has recently returned to the forefront. The idea of creating a collective fund to develop marketing initiatives aimed at promoting natural diamonds is not only legitimate, it is also relevant. However, the use of these funds remains uncertain, as positions diverge on the marketing strategy to adopt. The NDC was criticised in 2025 for its campaign denigrating laboratory-grown diamonds, which was considered divisive and counterproductive by part of the public. More playful, light-hearted, humorous campaigns, or those more firmly rooted in diamond-producing territories (the USD 5 laboratory-grown diamond distributor, the Indian market campaign “Who’s Your Daddy?”, the “Real, Rare, Responsible” advertisement by the Natural Diamond Council featuring Lily James, the film set in Canada’s Northwest Territories) were much better received. The emotional dimension remains paramount.
De Beers’ pricing policy deemed unfavourable to Botswana
A member of the Luanda Agreement, Botswana has suffered from cuts in US humanitarian aid but, even more so, from the downturn in the diamond market. The country accuses De Beers of not selling its diamonds at fair market prices, which has led to a collapse in revenues and the impoverishment of the population. The drastic reduction in medical aid, deprived of funding, is being acutely felt. The mining group’s policy has instead been to retain goods during downturns, waiting for the market to recover, despite some recent price reductions of 15 to 20%, or even more on certain assortments. Consequently, in order to better control the prices and stocks of its diamonds, Botswana has positioned itself to acquire De Beers, as have Angola, Namibia and South Africa, with these countries having at one point considered forming a consortium.
For its part, the mining company is going through a period of great uncertainty regarding its future. Internal adjustments, layoffs, discounted stock sales and the postponement of reforms to contracts with sightholders reflect the group’s instability. This situation undermines the serenity and foundations of the sector, which is now waiting to see what the future holds for this heavyweight of the industry.
For heritage jewels, the security challenge
Finally, Joshua Freedman and Leah Meirovich returned to several symbolic events of the year that has just ended, including the rediscovery of the 137.27-carat yellow Florentine diamond (probably a Golconda stone), missing since 1918 and found in Canada. Conversely, the robbery at the Louvre and the disappearance of 19 French Crown Jewels, as well as the theft of a USD 25 million pink diamond in Dubai (quickly recovered), highlighted the critical security challenges facing museums. The Green Diamond of Dresden, an exceptionally rare stone, narrowly escaped theft during the burglary of the Grünes Gewölbe museum in Dresden in 2019.
Was 2025 the annus horribilis of the diamond industry? Structural problems combined with cyclical factors — the weakness of major markets, competition from laboratory-grown diamonds, the potential sale of De Beers, US tariff barriers and the collapse of India’s diamond industry — have come together to deal a severe blow to the sector, leading to its necessary restructuring.
Main image : Natural Diamonds Council
The podcast can be listened to in full HERE.